It was a night of great intercession as the pastor led his congregation to pray for Nigeria. In his brief exhortation in the course of the vigil, the pastor also told the worshippers that the only way forward was not to be

moved by circumstances, that no matter the perfidy from politicians, the wasted opportunities and all that, they should henceforth make positive confession about the country. The prayer warriors were made to believe that once they confessed positively about Nigeria it would be alright and there was a general resolve by everybody to do just that. After the prayer session, everybody left the church feeling high that it would be well with the country but also with a resolve never to be moved by the prevailing circumstances.

The first image that confronted the worshippers as they stepped out of the church premises, however, was a long queue of vehicles seeking to buy fuel at the petrol station on the adjacent street that was in total confusion. It was the first test of their new faith and while many shook their heads, the pastor who had escorted them to the church gate, just smiled and said: "it is well". Then the man of God got a call on his GSM phone of violence in his home state where more than a hundred people were reported to have been killed. And just before he could mutter a word, his vendor came with the dailies. The leading headline in his favourite newspaper was about some governors being dragged before the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission (ICPC) for alleged embezzlement of funds to the tune of billions of naira. On another national daily was a report of the assassination of a political heavyweight. Subconsciously, the pastor exclaimed, to the consternation of some of his congregation members who were still with him: "Kai, Nigeria is finished!"

In times like this, it is very difficult to be optimistic about our dear country, Nigeria, because we all know we should not be in this situation where we now find ourselves. Today we live in poverty in the midst of plenty while things appear to be abnormal on all fronts. Basically because while we have enough for everybody's need, we don't have enough for the individual greed of our leaders which is ever more than our collective need. And as we move gradually towards another civilian-to-civilian transition election, what we witness on a daily basis is an orgy of violence and bloodletting instigated by people who claim to be serving us.

In his column in the Daily Trust on Tuesday, Mr. Ujudud Shariff said Nigeria is today, like NITEL line, on TOS (Temporarily Out of Service). It is an apt description of the situation on ground now. The universities have been closed for several months now and there seems to be no sign that they will soon resume courtesy of ASUU strike. Now, as you read this, the queues at the fuel stations just keep lengthening and I know that on April 19 many Nigerians would rather be on queue at the fuel station than bother to queue at the polling stations.

When you consider all these with the growing violence in the states, then you can conclude that we are sitting at the edge of a precipice. What is even curious is that in times like this, one would expect that the campaigns would be based on the sad realities on ground and pressing issues but there is no serious campaign going on. To worsen the matter, our incumbent office holders at all levels are set for grand return to power even when they cannot properly account for their first term in office.

Interestingly, notwithstanding the situation of things at the federal level, it is clear that we are stuck with president Olusegun Obasanjo for another four years and we should not blame the man. The only two political parties that should offer us hope for change and would have given him a good run do not appear set to do so. While the Alliance for Democracy (AD) has decided to play the ethnic card by supporting their kinsman-president, it would seem the All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP) has conspired to ensure Obasanjo wins an easy contest by fielding a man they all knew cannot win as their presidential candidate.

This election, whether we like it or not, is an either-or-contest between the two former military leaders. At least many of us are realistic enough to know it is not about any dreamer saying God told him in the corner of his room that he would be president. But whatever the merit of the aspiration of Major General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), it should be clear by now to even the most incurable optimists that he is going nowhere and that explain why many of us are already looking beyond the election.

On Tuesday, my colleague, Mr. Godwin Agbroko spoke my mind in his piece "A Victory Foretold" on the likely outcome of the April 19 polls. The same day, retired Colonel Abubakar Dangiwa Umar called me from Kaduna to commend the piece which he said spoke his mind too. Because Buhari, for all his credentials and credibility, has a national image problem. Umar and I had a long talk about the failings of Obasanjo and his fine points but concluded that even at that, if ANPP was serious about taking power from him, they could do better with a more acceptable candidate.

At this point, I think we should be able to differentiate between whether Obasanjo deserves a second term and whether he will get one. In another country, the seemingly intractable energy crisis as we have today with fuel scarcity and NEPA's epileptic services are enough to make Obasanjo forget the idea of second term. And when you combine that with the educational crisis and the worsening economy then you are talking about a monumental defeat awaiting such candidate. It would not matter that such a person has good intentions or that he is honest, what would matter is whether the material conditions of the people have so improved to reward him with another term. But that is not the situation here because Obasanjo, even with what is evident before our very eyes, is going to win and perhaps by a wide margin too.

The question we should ask ourselves is whether issues matter in the choice of Nigerians when it comes to elections or whether the elite just decide for us based on some come-and-eat arrangement. Does it mean we are not capable of electing leaders based on our perception of situation on ground? Must we always go for the government in power in the name of continuity simply because of patronage? Or is it that we don't see alternatives from the array of contenders? These are questions we must find answers for after the elections.

However, it is enough to say that Buhari has himself to blame for whatever political woes he meets in this election because he has over the years portrayed himself, albeit unfortunately, as an ethnic irredentist, a religious bigot and a man who has no temperament for democratic ethos and obviously no regard for fundamental human rights. I say unfortunately because Buhari may not be any of these but that is the general perception and perception is everything in this game. I can give an example to show that when it comes to human rights and democracy Buhari could even be better than Obasanjo but we can tell that to the marines given the way Buhari has projected himself.

In 1993, during the June 12 fiasco days. Obasanjo had called a meeting of his ‘Good Governance Committee’ of which Buhari was a member for Ota. After the meeting, as the communique was being drafted, Buhari said they should add a call for the release of political detainees like Femi Falana, Gani Fawehinmi, Baba Omojola and others. Obasanjo would not hear this and when Buhari insisted, the president angrily retorted: "We made the call in the last communique, why must we add that again?"

To this, Buhari replied: "Sir, if during the apartheid days, we made a call for the release of Nelson Mandela in one communique and he was not released does it mean we would not do so again in the next communique?" Obasanjo had no answer for this so he grudgingly agreed. Now, his campaign organisation is asking Nigerians to "give one quote Buhari ever made in defence of democratic struggle in Nigeria before he declared interest in the presidency and win N50,000". The suggestion is that Obasanjo cherishes these values but Buhari does not yet can we really say that given the experience of the last four years between the presidency and National Assembly?

But assuming Obasanjo wins, as I think he will, is that enough for him to rejoice about? Is it all about winning elections? Is Nigeria of today what he would like to bequeath to posterity? I believe that the challenges before the man are so enormous that if I were in his shoe I probably would have been content with just one term and try to leave a legacy that would have assured my name in history. Because the way things are today, I doubt if many Nigerians would be ready to defend this democracy (which would easily be translated to mean this government) when the chips are down. And that should worry people in government who throw around billions of ill-gotten wealth in the name of donations to campaigns. Yet, for all its imperfections, we are better off keeping this democracy.

The American ambassador to Nigeria, Mr. Howard Jetter, said as much when he met with us (editors) on Monday. He said Nigeria, all factors considered, is definitely a better place today than it was under the military while the potentials for growth and development remain high. He however added that the main problem now as Nigerians know too well is civilian-to-civilian elections. "This is the most critical period. It won't be perfect but I still believe you can do it. What worries me is the growing incidence of violence and it should worry you".

We are all worried because if a proper account were taken today, we may realise more lives have been lost in, for instance, the town of Warri in the last four years than have been lost in the Iraqi war so far. And whether we also realise it or not, even if the immediate cause of the madness is ethnicity the remote cause of the violence and bloodletting is nothing but political mismanagement. The tragedy of the situation in the Delta (which is mini-Nigeria) is that we have for decades toyed with the destiny of the people with no thought about their material condition and that may be the beginning of our doom.

Three years ago, I captured what is going on today with a story told me by a naughty colleague which I said then and still repeat might sound offensive to the sensibility of some people. While craving their indulgence I must restate that I am using it because it presents the most graphic metaphor for driving the point home.

It is about a supposedly loving couple having problems which bordered on sex. The husband happened to be a man with healthy appetite hence he would not allow his wife any breathing space. After putting up with his dirty antics for some years, the wife took the matter to her in-law as the 'court of first instance'. After narrating her story, her mother-in-law asked whether her son was maltreating her in other ways, she said no. Was he providing for her as he should? She answered in the affirmative. They declared that she had no case because her husband, their son, was only claiming his entitlements. Case dismissed.

Defeated, the poor woman accepted her fate for a while before reporting to her own parents. Let us call this the 'court of appeal'. Here, they equally asked the same set of questions her in-laws asked. Her mother however added: "Is your husband dating another woman?" She said no. The ruling that followed was harsh as they scolded her for attempting to shirk her marital responsibility. The appeal therefore failed on all grounds and the man continued to claim his entitlements.

Ultimately, the wife took the matter to their local pastor who we can in this instance call the Supreme Court. Having listened to the tale, the pastor sent for the husband so he could listen to both sides. When the husband came, the pastor asked the wife to retell her tale which she did. "Is it true?" He replied: "It is true Sir but the problem is that I don't want to have affairs outside"

This to the pastor was a serious problem but after a discussion that involved trade-off, bargaining and compromises, it was agreed that a maximum of three times a day was enough for any couple. Thus a ceiling was effectively placed on how many times the man could 'harass' the poor woman a day. It was a Friday evening and back home, the man, quite naturally, claimed his 'quota' for that day. Then came Saturday. To cut the story short, by mid day, he had performed his matrimonial obligation three times to the satisfaction of his wife who thought she would be left alone. She was wrong. When he started behaving funny, she exploded: "What is the problem? Have I not met my responsibility for today?" Looking crest fallen, the husband replied: "Yes, I know, but please lend me one from tomorrow's".

You may laugh but the attitude of that man represents the attitude of Nigerian government and its proclivity to borrow from the future but let us conclude the story. The tales from the communities where we tap oil is that of neglect while years of deprivation have turned the men and women to gun wielding mercenaries. There is no job for the youth, farming is completely out of the question since there is no arable land and the waters have been so polluted that the people cannot fish. So in essence you have a large population of idle, angry hands.

At another level, the economy has been so mismanaged that like the irresponsible husband in the story we have become perpetual debtors. We have refused to go beyond exporting crude oil, while we still depend on importing refined petroleum products from abroad at great expense, the reason why fuel scarcity has become a common feature of our lives. All we do now is to borrow from tomorrow by one debt rescheduling or another, shifting payments for the next generation to come and handle. Granted that this situation predated Obasanjo but what has he done in the last four year to redress it beyond some fairy tales about the past?

Like the lustful husband who was having fun at the expense of his wife, whatever goes up would someday come down as we have found out at great cost to our nation today. Yet the Niger Delta is just one among many flash-points which could explode at any time but the sad thing is that we do not care enough and that is dangerous for everyone. And in our usual hypocritical manner, we are crying more than the bereaved over Iraq, when the lives of our own people hardly matter. Perhaps to show how easy it is for Nigerians to see the moth in other people's eyes while ignoring the log in ours, in the breakfast session with the American ambassador on Monday, all but two of the questions we asked him were on Iraqi war when we have bigger problems at home!

Jetter, who said he has a commitment to Nigeria than we may ever realise, used the occasion to paint a dangerous picture for the editors to ponder about. "If you look at West Africa today, the picture is not pretty. Sierra Leone is today the poorest country in the world. Yet that is one country with diamond, marine resources and good arable land for agriculture. It has become the poorest country because of war. Next door is Liberia with its continued instability which could become war again. Next door you have Cote D'voire, the third largest economy in West Africa now in shambles and instability. Next you have Guinea where I gather the President is not well. Of course you know about Guinea Bissau. If you look at this ugly picture and you now have election violence in Nigeria, it will take you decades and decades to get out of. That is the choice before you. Your potentials are enormous if you succeed but so are the consequences of failure for your country, for the West African sub-region and for the continent of Africa."

Enough said!

• This piece was first published in THISDAY in 2003